Archive for March, 2009

While the government is spending trillions buying up debt and fixing failing companies balance sheets, they are doing precious little to solve the real problem – too big a supply of homes and too little demand for them.

There are estimates that if all things go well, housing supply and demand will be back in balance in 2012. I really don’t want to have to wait that long to get the economy at full speed again. Do you?

Well, I am a subscriber to John Mauldin’s Frontline Thoughts . It is an excellent, free weekly email on the economy. This week, John highlighted a plan put forth by Gary Shilling and Richard LeFrak that would dramatically increase the demand for housing and not cost the taxpayer a dime.

The plan is pretty simple. The U.S. lets in over a 1 million immigrants to this country a year. For the next few years, there needs to be the added requirement that each one of these immigrants purchase a median priced home or better. Upon doing so, they will immediately be granted temporary (5yr) green card status.

Let me be clear: The plan is not to open up the floodgates to immigrants. The plan is to require the already incoming immigrants to make an immediate impact on the economy.

You can read more about the plan here.

Personally, I would rather the government stop trying to manipulate market forces altogether. But since that obviously isn’t going to happen, I would much rather they do something that costs taxpayers nothing and cuts to the heart of the problem.

I urge you to contact your congressmen about this proposal. You can find out who is representing you here. (http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/)

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posted by CM Mar 21, 2009  11:03 PM
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Brevard County Land Development Office

The county where my office is located, Brevard County, Florida just announced a moratorium on transportation impact fees. The reason – to help stimulate the local economy. Or in the official language of the new ordinance,

… the Brevard County Board of County Commissioners has determined that putting its citizens back to work is a high priority for every level of government, including county government; and …

… the County Commission has determined that the removal of certain regulatory and economic impediments to new commercial development is one way in which County government can join the State and Federal government in strategies designed to stimulate the local economy…

This is a big deal. My firm is often involved with property developers who are forced to pay transportation impact fees that exceed $1 million dollars.

Reducing the cost of a project by that amount is no laughing matter, and it would certainly make some projects financially feasible that weren’t doable without the savings.

If that is the case, maybe Brevard County will succeed in “putting its citizens back to work”.

Do you have land development projects in your area where the waiving of impact fees would make them profitable? If so, and even if not, you might want to let your local government agencies know about what other counties are doing to spur growth.

Cities and Counties are much more willing to adopt changes when they know others have done it as well. A simple letter or email linking them to Brevard Counties website may be enough to save your next project tens of thousands of dollars. (Here is the link, http://www.brevardcounty.us/landdevelopment/).

But please remember, just because it may make your property developments cheaper to build, that doesn’t mean there is now demand for what you are building. Do your research first.

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posted by CM Mar 16, 2009  05:03 PM
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Found an interesting tool called Google Insights that gives a unique perspective on the real estate development industry. Google Insights graphs the searches in Google to see trends in people’s interests over time. It is a really neat tool for getting a feel of what is happening in the world.

I thought Insights might be able to tell me what kind of interest people have in land development right now and where the trend is headed. Below are screen shots for the terms, “Real Estate Development”, “Property Development”, and “Land Development”.

Insights for Real Estate Development

Insights for Real Estate Development

Insights for Property Development

Insights for Property Development

Insights for Land Development

Insights for Land Development

As you can see, all three charts show that interest in property development bottomed out at the end of last year and interest has bounced off those lows so far in 2009. Granted the bounce isn’t huge, but it is certainly a change in the trend.

Now, does this mean the recession is over for property developers?

Well, I wouldn’t go to Vegas based on Google Insights, but the charts do offer some good news amid a plethora of “sky is falling” headlines right now. We will have to follow the charts from Google Insights closely to see if the new trends continue. Likewise only time will tell if the increased activity I am seeing with real estate development in my office will continue. I will certainly let you know if it does.


posted by CM Mar 13, 2009  07:03 PM
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Despite what the media seems to be telling us, the commercial and residential development market is not dead.

Here is a link to a story of a firm in England who made the right moves the last couple of years and is making 2009 their year to start some aggressive development projects.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-development-company-new-projects-200903112766.html

I think there is need for more real estate stories like this to combat the constant barrage of “end of the world” type stuff and I plan on bringing you more in the near future. If there is enough interest I might even make a permanent podcast out of the stories.

So if you have a development that is moving forward (or know of one), I would love to know about it. I’d like to interview you about the project, find out why you are moving forward right now and maybe get some advice for other readers. (It is also a great way to get some free publicity for your property development.)

Shoot me an email if you are interested.


posted by CM Mar 11, 2009  06:03 PM
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